The discovery of a scandalous affair that makes the daily
headlines historically indicates the end of a political career. After all, we
elect officials who in a representative democracy are supposed to take into
account the views of their constituents in order to draft legislation that is
consistent with our fiscal and moral values. It would seem logical for our
politicians to be held to a higher standard of scrutiny. When acts of
malfeasance that demonstrate clouded judgment are discovered, a public apology
and resignation from office usually follow.
Despite these tendencies, a recent study
conducted by political scientist Scott Basinger suggests a relatively short
shelf life for politicians caught in scandal. Of the 250 instances analyzed
since Watergate, over 60% of incumbents survived their scandal. On average,
incumbents running for reelection only lost approximately 5% of their voter
share in the general election and 15% in primary challenges, but the numbers
vary according to the type of scandal and the strength of the candidate’s opponent.
Ironically, scandals related to marital infidelity and political finance
violations were least impactful on voters at the polls, while corruption caused
the largest declines on Election Day. Although Basinger’s research fails to
account for politicians who enter retirement in the aftermath of public
embarrassment, it underscores the relatively small impact that scandals have on
the political futures of incumbents.
Earlier this month, former Governor Mark Sanford won
the GOP nomination for the congressional seat vacated by Tim Scott in South
Carolina’s 1st District despite admitting to an extramarital affair
in 2009. Another former congressman Anthony Weiner is reportedly contemplating
his candidacy for Mayor of New York City. Polls of likely voters indicate a
favorable view of Weiner in spite of the “sex-ting” scandal that resulted in his
resignation from Congress. Even the infamous Monica Lewinsky affair which
threatened to derail Bill Clinton’s political legacy seems to have been
forgiven by the American public. In fact, Barack Obama’s successful White House
re-election bid heavily relied on the former president’s capacity as a
surrogate, especially in parts of the country where Bill Clinton enjoys
unusually high approval ratings.
In reviewing Basinger’s research, I submit that the
extent to which a politician will emerge from a scandal with political success
is determined by the effectiveness of the messaging explaining the candidate’s
malfeasance. Especially when it comes to non-political matters like sex
scandals, incumbents can successfully win re-election if they are honest with
the public and can convince them that they are still the best person for the
job, regardless of the scandalous discoveries. It is for that reason that I
believe an American war hero like General David Petraeus may be in an ideal
position to win public office if he chooses to announce his candidacy in the
near future in spite of his extramarital affair.
While scandals are never helpful to political
careers, they certainly are not the death sentence that they appear to be when
news first breaks of a politician’s misconduct.
Scandals certainly don't appear to be the death knell they once were. I agree that General Petraeus would be a formidable candidate despite his affair. He has been touring and making speaking engagements (including here at USC). It certainly seems like he might be gearing up for a race. It is facinating to see that Sanford and Anthony Weiner have found ways to make their scandals almost non issues by making "redemption" the theme of their campaigns. I still believe that Sanford will be in for a tough fight though.
ReplyDeleteIt is fascinating to see how scandals do not necessarily ruin political careers. On the one hand, the majority of the scandals you cited did not have anything to do with politics. Such malfeasance may not have any hinderance on a politician's ability to represent his or her constituency. On the other hand, scandals call into question a politician's integrity. If they show such poor judgment in other settings, why should voters trust them in government?
ReplyDeleteThat's where public relations comes in. As you mention, it is all about the messaging. If you can create sympathy, provide possible justification, and ask for forgiveness in a sincere manner, chances are you can wiggle your way through trouble. I have always been intrigued by press conferences and the like where people answer for their malfeasance. It often borders between very awkward and rather comical.
I think the public attitudes towards elected officials is changing in line with the attitudes we have toward each other. We no longer hold a combined definition of morality. In its place we now have a moral relativism. We each decide what is moral and right for our own lives based on our own circumstances. That morality can change based upon how our circumstances change. Along with this relativism we are increasingly less likely to apply our own definitions of morality on others. We allow others the ability to choose for themselves what is moral in their life according to their circumstances.
ReplyDeleteAs a result we are far more forgiving of politicians and their failures when it comes to moral relativity. There are however still issues such as the abuse of power and corruption that we are still not in a position to forgive. Issues such as corruption seem to be unversally abhorred, a contradiction of moral relativism perhaps?
I totally agree with you that political scandals are not the end of politicians political careers. First, I will reiterate that Americans are very forgiving as many others, including you have mentioned on this blog. Some politicians even come out stronger a few years after their scandal. President Bill Clinton, the favorite president of many (including one of mine) is a perfect example of this. My take is if President Clinton was allowed a third term by the Constitution, he will like win the presidency again. And if Al Gore had actively used him in his campaign, he might have even been the president. Americans love Bill Clinton despite his shortfall.
ReplyDeleteIn current events, we just saw Governor Sanford come out of a scandal to beat a Republican challenger in the Republican primary for the 1st Congressional seat in South Carolina. And there are many more
Indeed, political scandals are not the end of politicians political careers.