The discovery of a scandalous affair that makes the daily
headlines historically indicates the end of a political career. After all, we
elect officials who in a representative democracy are supposed to take into
account the views of their constituents in order to draft legislation that is
consistent with our fiscal and moral values. It would seem logical for our
politicians to be held to a higher standard of scrutiny. When acts of
malfeasance that demonstrate clouded judgment are discovered, a public apology
and resignation from office usually follow.
Despite these tendencies, a recent study
conducted by political scientist Scott Basinger suggests a relatively short
shelf life for politicians caught in scandal. Of the 250 instances analyzed
since Watergate, over 60% of incumbents survived their scandal. On average,
incumbents running for reelection only lost approximately 5% of their voter
share in the general election and 15% in primary challenges, but the numbers
vary according to the type of scandal and the strength of the candidate’s opponent.
Ironically, scandals related to marital infidelity and political finance
violations were least impactful on voters at the polls, while corruption caused
the largest declines on Election Day. Although Basinger’s research fails to
account for politicians who enter retirement in the aftermath of public
embarrassment, it underscores the relatively small impact that scandals have on
the political futures of incumbents.
Earlier this month, former Governor Mark Sanford won
the GOP nomination for the congressional seat vacated by Tim Scott in South
Carolina’s 1st District despite admitting to an extramarital affair
in 2009. Another former congressman Anthony Weiner is reportedly contemplating
his candidacy for Mayor of New York City. Polls of likely voters indicate a
favorable view of Weiner in spite of the “sex-ting” scandal that resulted in his
resignation from Congress. Even the infamous Monica Lewinsky affair which
threatened to derail Bill Clinton’s political legacy seems to have been
forgiven by the American public. In fact, Barack Obama’s successful White House
re-election bid heavily relied on the former president’s capacity as a
surrogate, especially in parts of the country where Bill Clinton enjoys
unusually high approval ratings.
In reviewing Basinger’s research, I submit that the
extent to which a politician will emerge from a scandal with political success
is determined by the effectiveness of the messaging explaining the candidate’s
malfeasance. Especially when it comes to non-political matters like sex
scandals, incumbents can successfully win re-election if they are honest with
the public and can convince them that they are still the best person for the
job, regardless of the scandalous discoveries. It is for that reason that I
believe an American war hero like General David Petraeus may be in an ideal
position to win public office if he chooses to announce his candidacy in the
near future in spite of his extramarital affair.
While scandals are never helpful to political
careers, they certainly are not the death sentence that they appear to be when
news first breaks of a politician’s misconduct.
